This blogpost summarizes some of the main points from the book titled “Signals”, written by Jeff Desjardins

It has take make more than a month to go through this book in order to digest the mammoth information laid out in the book in the form of visuals. The book is a visual treat to any one who loves data visualization. Numbers around a wide range of topics are conveyed through visuals; this means our brains have a far greater chance of retaining the information. The book is organized in to seven parts, each containing a set signals, totaling 27 signals. Depending on your area of work, area of interest, you might be attracted to one specific part of the book. There are no cross references among the signals and hence in that sense, one can dive in to any signal one is interested in and start devouring it. Soon one realizes that the information is presented via beautiful visuals that it does not take a long time to understand numbers behind a domain that you are not terribly familiar with. By the time you realize this, you will be hooked to the data visualization from all sorts of fields. This book has made a tremendous impact on me in the way I look at the world. In the last few months that I have spent reading and digesting this book, it looks like some part of my brain got rewired and is now much more inclined to connect numbers that I come across in my daily life.

In this blogpost, I will try to briefly summarize the 27 signals mentioned across the book. Each signal is presented by displaying FOUR types of visualizations that capture : origin of the signal, define the signal, decode the signal and analyze the impact of the signal

Aging World

The average age of the population has increases each year since 1970, and this is predicted to continue until at least the beginning of the 22nd century.

As the global population grows older on average, some countries will be affected more than others. One way of measuring this is the old-age dependency ration, a number that aims to compare the working-age population of a country to the older, less economically active portion

According to an analysis by World Economic Forum, the shortfall in pension saving is expected to growm from $67T to $428T by 2050.

An aging population changes the structure of our societies. Undoubtedly, it creates an array of challenges for decision-makers but it also opens up new doors of opportunity to entrepreneurs and investors. This growing cohort of individuals create an $15 Trillion market dubbed the silver economy, which is already being tapped into by ambitious tech innovators and forward-thinking health companies.

Urban Evolution

In many parts of the world, the exodus from rural areas to the city will accelerate

Not only will the number of cities increase, the scale of urban areas will also continue to grow

Populations around the world will continue to accumulate around city clusters or megaregions, following the example of leading economies

Cities of the future will be

• smart
• brand new
• super sized

For the first time in human history, urban life has become the norm. In Africa and Asia, cities will continue to grow and, in some cases, swell to unprecedented sizes. Much like China’s mass migration at the beginning of the 21st century, the scale of urbanization will have wide reaching impacts on society and global economy.

Rising Middle Class

2018 marked a global tipping point as half of all households had enough discretionary expenditure to be considered “middle class” or “rich”. This ongoing transition will have a dramatic effect on the world economy as patterns of consumption, which include purchases like household appliances and vacations, will continue to increase.

More than half of the world is now considered middle class or wealthier. By 2030, that number will be 2/3 of the global population

It is estimated that give people earn their way into the global middle class every second.

Growing urban areas, with their younger, working-age populations, will see the biggest increases in consumption - particularly within the education category.

Thanks to rapid growth in emerging countries, this segment of population will soon vastly outnumber and outspend the rest of the world.

Decentralization of Media

Technology has increasingly enabled the democratization and proliferation of media, a traditionally oligopolistic market. But falling barriers to entry create new problems as well, including new tech-driven gatekeepers

Falling barriers to entry

With few barriers to entry left, each person and brand is now their own media company - and millions of pieces of content are distributed every minute

With algorithmic personalization, there are downsides too

The democratization of content has dramatically altered the media landscape, putting content creation in the hands of digital users - but leaving curation and monetization in the hands of Big Tech and its powerful algorithms

In one sense, this has opened the door to many more voices and opinions- but it has also enabled a shift in which Big Tech has become the key gatekeeper to both exposure and monetization. The media landscape has become less trustworthy and more polarizing as a result. If every problem is an opportunity, then the current media landscape is ripe for the picking.

Rising Wealth Inequality

The U.S is home to a vast number of world’s ultra-high net worth individuals, a visible reminder of growing domestic inequality.

Wealth inequality has been a persistent issue throughout human history. Just three decades ago, 36% of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty. While this proportion has fallen to 9% as of 2018, many developed nations are experiencing a new form of economic disparity - one that is exemplified by the boom in ultra-wealthy citizens.

Although US is the wealthiest country in the world, it falls behind several other developed nations in terms of median wealth.

A key driver of the wealth gap in the US is the difference in assets held by America’s top 10% and bottom 90%

Equity returns have been superior to those of real estate and many in the bottom 90% are missing out on a powerful source of wealth

With less exposure to stocks and other financial securities, America’s lower-income families will struggle to build wealth at the same rates as those at the top. This could have long-term implications, as economic inequality in one generation is often linked to unequal opportunities for the next.

Climate Pressures

Developments leading to the signal:

• Volcanic eruptions
• Naturally occurring greenhouse gases
• Fossil fuel consumption in 2019 is 137Twh
• Carbon emissions - Currently at 410 ppm
• Agricultural sector growth
• Population growth - 7.8B by 2021
• Deforestation - 2.2 billion hectares by 2010
• Since 2010, UN FAO estimate that 10 million hectares of forest were cut down each year
• Rapid urbanization - 61% of world’s population lives in cities
• Middle class growth - estimated to hit 5.3B by 2030

Global temperatures have been climbing steadily, and pressure is mounting on businesses and governments to solve climate-related challenges

Industry and Buildings contribute to 50% of global emissions

Among countries, China and US rank the top two countries in terms of contributing to emissions

Some of the risks to humans and ecosystems are

• Dryland water scarcity
• Soil erosion
• Vegetation loss
• Wildfire damage
• Permafrost degradation
• Tropical crop yield decline
• Food supply instabilities

The following is a good summary visual that shows the impact based on various scenarios:

Climate change concerns not only scientists, but also business leaders and the general public as well. It’s a complex problem that poses a long-term threat, but such threats can also double as opportunities for strategic investors, entrepreneurs and decision-makers

Water Crisis

Developments leading to the signal:

• Limited freshwater
• Shrinking sea ice minimum
• Population growth in arid climates
• Shrinking wetlands and acquifers
• Growth of urban slums
• Irrigated agriculture
• Pollution of rivers and lakes
• Hydroelectric dams

The demand for water has increased alongside the global population placing an incredible amount of stress on an already limited supply. Developing countries with a high rate of population density will likely struggle to satisfy their domestic water demand

All we have is 0.007% of water on earth. So, next time you splurge water on something unnecessary, watch out - you are ensuring that our future generations face water shortage

Among all the sectors, domestic sector has the largest demand. Rising domestic demand can be attributed to the growth of the urban population, which often has better access to water and sanitation

Shifting dietary preferences are likely to increase the agriculture sector’s water usage even further

Expanding food production is also leading to higher levels of pesticide usage, increasing the risk of water contamination

World bank report says that global estimated cost of addressing the water crisis by 2030 is $1.04T. While it may cost a trillion dollars to manage the global water crisis, the alternative is bleak. Failure to implement efficient water policies could result in up to 10% GDP drop for hard-hit regions

Electrification of Everything

Developments leading to the signal:

• Decarbonization
• Renewable energy
• Energy storage
• Load flexibility
• Increasing battery capacity
• Motor strength
• Grid strength and connectivity
• Electric vehicle incentives
• Personal device usage
• Electrified supply chains

Fossil fuels run our world. Almost 80% of the energy needed to run the world comes from fossil fuels. This dependency on fossil fuels means that CO2 emissions in the world have reached an alarming proportion - 36.3 gigatons in 2021. Electrification of goods and services is a huge force that will shape our lives in the immediate and distant future.

US annual electricity consumption in 2020 was about 3.9 terawatt hours and it is estimated that it will hit 7 terawatt hour by 2050.

The downside to this massive drive towards electrification is that sadly, 60% of electricity is obtained from Coal, Gas and Oil, i.e. the same elements that are resulting in massive Green house gas emissions. Unless renewable energy dominates the electrification process, the march towards electrification will be a futile march.

The following is taken from OurWorldInData.org :

Transportation and Industrial sectors have a huge potential for electrification. In order to make the electrification not have a massive impact on GHG emissions, the renewables have to contribute as a large source and that is a trend that is already happening

Of course all this demand for electrification means that costs have to come down as compared to coal and natural gas. Naturally this trend will increase the demand for battery metals and hopefully will also result in battery cost reduction. Battery costs are at about $190/kWh and is projected to go down to $90/kWh by 2030

Electrification will create unimaginable products and transform entire industries

Information Overload

Developments leading to the trend

• 24 hour cable news
• Search engines
• Internet adoption
• Social media adoption
• The knowledge economy
• Filter bubbles
• Disinformation campaigns
• Declining trust in media
• Content streams
• Push notifications
• Content marketing
• Short-form video
• Growth of IoT
• Smartphone profileration
• Creeping screentime

We have generated about 44 zettabytes of data in 2020 and the following visual says that it is estimated to grow to 160 zettabytes by 2025. No wonder you see a massive opportunities for people who can wrangle data, build data models, write data engineering pipelines etc.

Creating pushing and sharing has never been easier. With monetization tools available, there are ever growing increasing in data creation and consumption

Screentime has also gone up with mobile and computer taking up 3.6 hours and 2 hours of our waking time.

Monthly podcasts listeners in US have hit 100M in 2019 and 1.5B hours are being streamed on Twitch, Facebook Gaming.

With information overload, compression and filtering of data via algos and influencers have become important. Our media consumption patterns have also changed with Smartphone, YouTube, Nintendo Switch, Apple devices etc. None of these were present a decade ago. What will be our devices a decade from now is hard to predict ?

What’s the impact of this signal ?

• Real time everything: By 2025, it is estimated that 1/3 of all information will be realtime
• Quantified self
• AR
• Rise of disinformation
  • Bots posting most of the tweets

Success in the data-driven future means getting comfortable with complexity. We have progressed from TV to TikTok in a single generation, so growing pains are an expected and natural part of our progression into a fully-integrated digital era. The ability to identify credible information and harness the automated tools that deliver content will be key to thriving in this strange, exciting future. Finding the signal in the noise has never been more valuable.

Data as Moat

Development leading to the trend

• Increased storage capacity - Cost per MB is 0.0001 dollars in 2009 as compared 100 dollars in 1983
• User data collection
• Operational data collection
• Increasing granularity of user data
• Cloud computing
• Increased storage capacity
• Improved data security
• IT Modernization
• Adoption of data tools
• Reduced data costs
• Improved data analysis

Protected by their massive user bases and resultant data-big and unique data- tech giants are experiencing unfettered economic growth

With massive user bases, the data moats are creating massive advantages to tech giants

Increasingly data analytics companies are being part of M&A space

Added to this trend, there is an increasing amount of data being shifted to cloud

The revenue generated by Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, MSFT and Facebook in 2019, mentioned as a visual in the book already look historic as compared to the record revenues generated in 2021. These are the updated visuals from VisualCapitalist

It is also estimated that global spending on AI will double in less than five years. i.e. from $50B in 2020 to $110B by 2024

While the entire globe stands to gain from investment in and adoption of AI, North America and China are the expected economic winners. Developing nations will see fewer gains due to lower rates of technological disruption. At an industry level, health care and automotive industry are likely to be affected the most.

Cybers Wild West

Developments leading to this trend

• Increased datafication
• Connected devices and IoT
• Bring your own device
• Slow cybersecurity adoption
• Fragmented policies
• Black market data
• Advanced hacking methods
• Cybercrime economy
• Remote connectivity
• Shift to remote work
• Robust AI

The average cost of a databreach is about $4M. Data breaches over the last decade have grown rapidly

Financial Services was the most targeted industry

No country is immune to online security breaches

Emerging cyber defense trends

Cyber security market forecast

Accelerating Technology

Developments leading to the trend:

• Electricity
• Semiconductor devices
• Internet
• Compact transistors
• Miniaturization
• Economies of Scale
• Datafication
• Device proliferation
• Enabling technology - Satellites, data farms, wifi, robotics
• Machine learning

Advances in technology are happening exponentially, building on each other and rapidly changing the world.

Shrinking timeline of tech breakthroughs

Machine to Machine connections are set to grow 10B to 14B

The lowest ranked supercomputer in 2020 has 1.24 petaflops as the processing speed. The highest ranked supercomputer in 2020 has a processing speed of 1000 petaflops

Total R&D expenditure as a % of GDP has grown in the last decade

Technology’s momentum shows no signs of slowing down, and investors are focused on new opportunities. However unchecked advancement may have negative consequences

Another interesting trend is the semiconductors as a percentage of total vehicle cost

The 5G Revolution

Developments leading to the signal

• Demand for high speed
• Increased data consumption
• Aging 4G infrastructure
• 5G Node installations
• Rollout of 5G standard
• Network installation race
• New AI functionality
• Next-gen smartphones
• Vehicles & Machinery
• Smart Cities
• Internet traffic from mobiles is 51%

The next generation of mobile networks has been heralded or a long time but 5G is already here and making an impact. Across cities, industries, and many aspects of life, that impact will be transformational. Not only does 5G offer exponential improvements over current wireless standards, it will also unlock a new wave of AI and IoT capabilities.

Many countries are rolling out 5G Networks. China, US and Australia have fully launched 5G networks

Use cases of 5G expected by network maturity

• Enhanced mobile broadband
• Fixed wireless acess
• Public safety communications
• Smart home
• Consumer AR/VR
• Smart factory
• Fleet and inventory management and tracking
• AR in healthcare
• Energy and Utility
• Autonomous cards
• Real-time banking
• Widespread IoT smart cities and agriculture

5G will enable $13 Trillion in global sales by 2035

2030 Forecast sales by segment

5G adoption will mean massive advantage to China, US, Japan and South Korea.

Disruptive impact on various sectors

It is estimated that by 2025, 50% of market will be dominated by 5G networks

Over the next decade, it is expected to transform a broad range of human experiences, from education to transformation. As an enabling technology that transformation will be largely positive. But being ready ahead of time, and taking advantage, will be vital

The New Space Race

Developments leading to the trend

• Data demands
• Need for connectivity
• Satellite technology shifts
• Smallsat, nanosat, and cubestat proliferation
• Cheaper manufacturing for smaller satellites
• Launch technology and frequency
• NASA warns up to commercial partners
• Land monitoring and tracking needs
• Increased launch options

The new space race isn’t to the moon- it’s a race toward a connected world of data and analytics. For startup visions to satellite constellations built by tech giants like Amazon, the surge in satellite missions highlights the widespread demand for data and connectivity. It also reveals the need for commercial launch capacity.

Space business has been heating up, sparked by a demand for data and connection. In the last decade 2,298 satellites have been launched.

The following visual summarizes the forecast of satellite’s past and future

Countries with the most operational satellites

• US : 1308
• China : 356
• Russia: 167
• UK: 130
• Japan: 78

Operational satellites by Purpose

• Commercial - 54% - 1440
• Government - 16% - 436
• Military - 13% - 339
• Civil - 5% - 133

Major commercial players are SpaceX, Planet Labs, Spire Global

China continues to lead the world in the number of orbital rocket launches performed, while in the U.S Space X broke the record for the most commercial rocket launches

Thanks to its advances launch technology and reusable rockets, SpaceX is quickly becoming a go-to launcher for satellite payloads.

What are the commercial satellites used for ?

Revenue projections

Connectivity is arguably a basic human right. With developing nations working towards increasing prosperity, the growing need for fixed internet coverage is expected to be gilled by satellite-led connection.

While the media is often distracted by dreams of asteroid mining or space tourism, they seem to have missed the big picture. The new space race is already under way and it’s going to be a lucrative business fueled by the rush for more connectivity and data

CRISPR: Gene Editing at Scale

Developments leading to the trend

• Discovery of DNA structure
• DNA sequencing
• Microbial DNA
• Discovery of Cas9 protein
• New gene editing tools
• Stem cell research
• Dolly the sheep
• Discovery of unique repeating DNA sequences
• Human Genome project
• Human gene editing

The speed of genetic sequencing is growing exponentially. The cost of sequencing human genome has gone down dramatically.

Why CRISPR matters ? CRISPR gene editing technology is

• Simple, cheap and easy to use
• 4x more efficient than the next best tool
• More precise at targeting specific genes than previous technologies

CRISPR has been found uses in

• Animals
• Crops
• Humans
• Pharma

Experts believe that we have just scratched the surface with CRISPR, and they see it being used in a variety of applications

Indebted World

Since the 2008 GFC, the world has borrowed money at an alarming rate. Global debt now sits at 290 Trillion dollars, a figure representing more than three times the world’s GDP

Government and Non-Financial Corporates each have a debt of $84T

Many countries have seen their debt loads increase to over 90% of their GDP

• Costly pandemic relief measures have forced governments to greatly expand their already growing debts
• The increasing costs of servicing the debt could cannibalize future investment in areas such as healthcare and education.
• Businesses are also taking advantage of low interest rates, evidenced by a rise in debt relative to equity
• Riskier segments of the credit market such as high-yield bonds have expanded significantly since the GFC

Global Household debt has grown to $48T with households in emerging markets leading the way

Since the GFC, low interest rate regimes have enabled global debt to rise at an alarming rate. This puts consumers, businesses and governments at a higher risk of insolvency. Policy makers will be hard-pressed to find ways of easing this burden in a non-disruptive fashion, and there’s no clear path for returning to normal.

Falling Interest Rates

Interest rates have been falling for seven centuries, and this trend is projected to continue over the next several decades.

From a short term perspective, the interest rate decline is striking. Since 1990, interest rates across several countries have dropped from double digit to single digit numbers.

US Mortgage rates have also fallen significantly over the past 30 years

Bond yields are following a similar downward path. The present bond market which began in 1981, is the second longest in 700 years. On a country-level negative bond yields are becoming increasingly apparent. Switzerland’s 30-year bond yields, hover in the negative territory

Evidence suggests that falling interest rates will likely have implications for deposit rates, resulting in the gradual erosion of individual savings.

Negative interest rates could soon become a global reality

Central Bank Impotence

Following the GFC, the central banks have struggled to stimulate growth with traditional monetary policy. Low interest rates are intended to make it easier for businesses and consumers to access loans, thereby increasing investment and large purchases. An issue arises, however, when rates approach zero. Unable to cut rates any further, central banks are relying on an unconventional policy known as QE to boost the economy. This results in massive increases in central bank liabilities, causing many to question if these institutions have gone too far.

Interest rates, a common lever for expanding or contracting the economy, have been pinned near zero since the GFC

Rapid inflation can erode the purchasing power of a currency and make it difficult for businesses to set prices. As a result, many central banks set a target inflation rate to promote steady growth.

The Bank of Japan was one of the first to struggle with impotency. It has had limited success in overcoming decades of low or negative inflation, both of which can be detrimental to economic growth.

The Bank of Japan has injected trillions in to its financial system through the purchase of various securities

The U.S Fed has insisted it will do whatever necessary to support the economy. Its liberal use of quantitative easing, however, may have undesirable side effects. The Fed has purchased trillions in government and corporate bonds since 2008, driving the yields of these securities to historic lows. These low yields are likely pushing investors into equities, increasing the risk of a price bubble.

In 2008, the Fed began to pay interest on excess reserves that commercial banks held with it. This policy can incentivize banks to keep deposits with the Fed, rather than increase lending to consumers and businesses.

Central banks are using QE to depress interest rates as much as possible. According to traditional theory, this should encourage consumers to spend, rather than save. In practice, these ultra low-rates may be doing the opposite.

Central banks remain committed to stimulating their economies. This has resulted in years of ultra-low interest rates and numerous rounds of QE. Critics claim that these types of interventions are counterintuitive to the concept of free markets and are causing more harm than good.

Stock Market Concentration

Developments leading to the trend

• Passive invvesting

• Lack of security analysis

• Market cap weighted indexes

• Stock price momentum

• Tech boom

• Mergers and Acquisitions

• Relative sector importance

• Financial media and influencers

• Bandwagon investing

• Availability bias

  The following shows the market cap represented by 5 largest stocks

  

This is not just a US phenomenon.

The tech sector has been driving index concentration in the recent years, but this wasn’t always the case

The rise of passive investing has also contributed to stock market saturation. In the U.S the top 19 ETFs account for 28% of total assets under management

If ever you were skeptical about fancy models, the equal weighted portfolio on 10 years CAGR basis gives 15% returns

Using three decades of data from 47 countries, researchers found that concentrated stock markets are associated with declines in economic growth, IPOs, innovation and funding for new firms.

Dwindling Corporate Longevity

Companies have shorter life spans than they did in previous decades, and they are projected to become even shorter in the future.

The average company tenure is forecast to shrink to 15-20 years. 50% of the S&P companies could be replaced from 2018-2027 at the current churn rates.

Venture capital mega deals have likely contributed to dwindling corporate life spans. Startups are large enough to be formidable competition or are merged with or acquired by existing companies.

Merger and acquisition activity is directly correlated with turnover in the S&P 500 and by proxy corporate longevity

Retail is one sector particularly affected by technology adoption as consumers go online in increasing numbers

As companies scramble to keep up, their focus has shifted from advertising to research and development.

Sustainable Investing

Developments leading to the trend

• Investor awareness
• Changing values
• Millenial wealth transfer
• Increased reporting
• More products
• Potential outperformance
• Asset manager buy-in
• Better benchmarking
• More transparency
• Enhanced analytics
• Easier access
• Climate change
• Carbon emissions

Global assets under management falling under an ESG mandate

As calls for equality, climate action and corporate accountability grow louder, the popularity of sustainable investing has grown. However, these strategies are about more than personal values. Sustainable investing also helps investors manage environmental, social and governance risks. As a result the investment strategy has proliferated around the world.

As the popularity of ESG investing grows, more companies are providing sustainability reports. This provides more transparency to investors and the public.

The U.S Energy Information Administration projects that renewable will provide 49% of world electricity by 2050, up from 28% in 2018

With younger, more socially conscious generations set to inherit a wealth of spending power in the near future, sustainable investing practices represent a compelling opportunity for investors to create a positive impact while still generating strong returns

Frictionless Retail

Some of the factors leading to this trend

• Growing global middle class
• Growth of ecommerce
• Retail apocalypse
• Casherless stores
• PayPal
• Self-checkout
• Contactless payments
• The gig economy
• Connected customers
• Big data utilization
• Personalized experiences
• Faster delivery times
• Supply chain challenges
• Warehouse automation
• Omnichannel retail growth
• Personalized experiences

Key functions among companies that use AI across retail and consumer packaged goods include

• merchandising
• inventory management
• checkout free store tech
• POS shrinkage monitoring
• Omnichannel marketing
• Retail supply chain optimization
• Ecommerce search

Warehouse automation is a magnet for investment, but technology is set to transform the retail landscape in other ways as well.

Amazon effect - Amazon is closing the gap between online and offline shopping by delivering instant gratification and a seamless experience for its customers

Consumer attitudes toward innovation in retail will continue to improve as new technologies become more commonplace. The majority of consumers are already willing to change their behavior if it makes their shopping experience easier.

Frictionless retail is the result of the relentless pursuit of convenience. The phenomenon is neither an online or offline outcome. Instead, the lines are being erased as consumers demand an experience that permeates both channels. Retailers that embrace technology to improve efficiency and eliminate pain points will reap the benefits. For customers, making day-to-day purchases will be easier than ever before.

The Rise of Meatless Meat

Meat alternatives are rapidly growing in popularity worldwide. Research shows that the widespread adoption of faux meat could bring about benefits for both people and the planet, and potentially disrupt the conventional meat industry.

Cultured meat and Novel vegan based meat might dominate the meat market

Unprocessed meat and Processed red meat are associated with a significant increase in disease risk. Both types also have the highest mean environment impact of all foods studies, due in part to high GHG.

The number of animals killed for meat production could see a decline if more people embrace a predominantly plant-based diet

Aside from meat, there has been a huge amount of innovation in other plant-based alternative markets, and they are also poised for growth in the coming years

While the benefits of meat-based diets have been debated for decades, research studies in favor of reducing meat consumption are growing. The global shift toward plant-based diets could prove significant when it comes to not only improving health outcomes, but tacking climate change as well

Connected Health

More and more consumers are adopting innovative health management tools such as wearables in an attempt to prevent chronic illnesses. This proactive approach to health is decreasing their reliance on traditional forms of healthcare, which is forcing healthcare services to reassess how they engage with their patients.

By 2040, global GDP could increase by roughly $12T, as a result of health improvements aided by digital innovation.

Since 2010, the biggest tech companies in the U.S have been investing in digital health applications, with Google being the most active

The rise in conscientious health consumers has opened the floodgates to an entire health and wellness ecosystem that is valued at trillions of dollars

Although consumers are asserting their position on connected patient-focused healthcare, conventional healthcare systems may face significant challenges in adapting to these needs. Regardless, digital technology is proving to be a relentless force with the power to create a sustainable healthcare system for the world’s rapidly growing population.

Bipolar World

China is challenging America’s role as the world’s sole super power. As a result of China’s widening influence, twin spheres of global dominance are projected for the future.

In a short period of time, China has overtaken US as the largest trading partner across 128 of 190 countries

China-US Trade dynamics

As its formative foreign policy initiative, China’s Belt&Road Initiative has signed infrastructure agreements with 138 countries, many of which are developing. Increasingly BRI countries are accounting for a greater share of China’s trade volumes

China’s sophisticated infrastructure projects are a pivotal part of its financial diplomacy maneuvers. Globally, there are over 3485 mega projects backed by China’s government, many of which fall under the BRI. Overall, they are valued in excess of $350 Billion

As China’s bilateral relationships proliferate, the RMB is gaining a noticeable foothold. Although the dollar reserve currency bloc still accounts for largest share globally, the RMB bloc accounts for a 30% share of global GDP

Global Payment currency

Thanks to its sprawling trade network and powerful currency, China’s position as an emerging superpower is gaining speed. However, the U.S has deep roots embedded in the financial architecture of the world, and whether or not China will gain enough ground to take over as the number one global superpower remains to be seen.

Peak Globalization

Decades of runaway growth were rudely interrupted by the GFC in 2008. Since them global trade has undergone a transformation and it seems that globalization will take a different turn in the imminent future.

Market protectionism has been a rising trend since the financial crisis, with the US leading the way

By the turn of the century, globalization appeared to be an unstoppable force on the world stage. Thanks in part to significant advancements and geopolitical developments- globalization continued to advance and trade as a percentage of GDP marched ever upward. Some of the factors behind the globalization are

• containerization
• fall of iron curtain
• market reforms in India and China
• U.S Economic dominance
• Accessible air travel
• Internet

Since 2008, the globalization wave has flattened out and some of the factors contributing to this are

• butting heads
• rising protectionism
• COVID-19
• Regionalization
• Waning Wage Cost Arbitrage

Globalization can be described as having four distinct pillars

1. Trade
2. Capital
3. Information
4. People

While most categories have experienced flat or uneven growth, the impact of the information pillar has been climbing for as long as it’s been measured

Services is $5T market

Global trade continues to evolve in new and unpredictable ways, and globalization is evolving along with it. Policymakers and business leaders must understand how the trade landscape is shifting so they can prepare for globalization’s next chapter - and the opportunities and challenges it will present.

Splinternet

The global internet is growing increasingly fragmented, with restrictiveness increasing in many regions. A number of forces are working against a free and open internet, but perhaps the most alarming trend is the continued rise of digital authoritarianism. Over time, more of the global online population are living in countries considered not free.

As opposed to one globally connected internet, we are now a growing number of national intranets, where censorship, content filtering, and tracking occur. Many countries now have the ability to completely shutdown internet services at their convenience

Examples of divided digital world

How China Controls the Internet ?

• Data Sovereignty
• Content Moderation
• Great Firewall of China
• Identity Registration
• China’s Great Cannon

Who are the winners and losers of Splintered Internet ?

As the growing movement toward stricter privacy laws indicates, even the “free and open” interent is far from perfect. Each society and government has a different idea of how an ideal version of the web should look. Until recently, much of the world was using an interent heavily influenced by the values of Silicon Valley technocrats. As countries asset more control over their version of cyberspace, it remain to be seen whether the internet remains a global network, or whether nation intranets become the norm.

Takeaway

I think this is the best book on Numeracy that I have read in the recent past. Our world is awash with numbers and sometimes we get carried away by opinions rather than looking at the underlying data. Why ? It is far more easy to listen to someone’s opinion rather than crunching the data and looking at the what the numbers are saying. However the mantra of this book can be summarized by:

If one takes time to read and internalize some of the numbers behind the trends, my guess is that you will start looking for connections between various numbers that you encounter in all your interactions with media and people around you.