I believe that there are patterns in markets that can be studied to take arb positions. Some trades go wrong , Some trades go right. Overall as long as you are right in majority of the trades, you are safely home.

It was easy for me to accept this framework when a LOT of my trades went wrong. I was enthused about fixing the parameters of the strategy, getting a better time window, using a ton of diagnostic tests etc. It was fun to fix the problem.

However my frame of mind changed when the strategy started working, working crazily well. I started believing in all crap things that are not logical by any standards. Today I got totally wacked , in most of the positions. For some strange reason I started looking at various areas which are not related to trading at all, not related to parameters at all. In fact , I started looking in some behavioral reasons for getting it wrong. Utter BS !

As things stand, I can’t explain this behavior of mine. Shouldn’t I be rational , irrespective of the trade outcomes ?
Why does “getting trades right”, induce a sense of irrationalism in me ? Shouldn’t I be still skeptical about trades , EVERY single time and take a law of large number view , EVERY single time ?