why implied vol is better
Via Vix and more : Why I thought IV was better than beta for determining volatility (past and future), here are three reasons why I think IV is superior to beta:
- Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, and other data providers sometimes list betas of 1.0 for issues they apparently have not calculated a beta for, particularly newer issues and foreign stocks
- Highly volatile stocks that go in the opposite direction of the market for awhile can sometimes have low betas – think small oil/gas exploration companies, gold miners, etc., but also consider that some tech stocks may countertrend for a long period and thus acquire a smaller beta than their volatility would suggest (historical volatility would be a better number to watch here, because it focuses entirely on the magnitude of the moves and does not care whether these moves are correlated to the broader markets)
- Implied volatility is forward looking, so it automatically adjusts to account for scheduled earnings announcements, a pending FDA drug decision, a legal issue that is due to be resolved, buyout rumors, terrorism, violence in the Middle East, a hurricane that is bearing down on the US, etc.