Nanotechnology : The Coming Upward curve
Mike Treder , the director of CRN says that Nanotechnology is on a upward curve and it might not be obvious to a lot of people, at this point of time.
Why ?
The problem is human perspective, what Ray Kurzweil calls the “Intuitive Linear View.” When we see something that looks like a straight line, we naturally assume that it is. Although change occurs around us every day, unless we look closely we may not notice it. So, we logically think that last week, last month, and last year were like today, and that next year and a few years after that won’t be much different either.
A few examples which cites Intuitive Linear view
1885 : No such thing as telephone or automobiles
1885 : British empire will last forever
1926: No such thing as television or cable
1926: Stock market will rise forever
1957: No such thing as communication satellites
1957: Sunny partnership between cuba and USA will prosper forever
1967: No such thing as computers / cell phones
1967:Martin Luther king and Bobby Kennedy will be the leaders for decades to come
1974: It will be years not in my time , before a woman will become a PM
1986: No such thing as world wide web
1986: Cold war will last forever
1995: Spam was a luncheon meat
1995: Terrorism is something bad that happens to someone else
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Now look at the similar thoughts we have abt Nano
2005: No such thing as molecular manufacturing
What to expect from the coming nano revolution
- Not just new products — a new means of production
- Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing systems — exponential proliferation
- Accelerated product improvement — cheap rapid prototyping
- Affects all industries— general-purpose technology
- Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital cost — economic discontinuity
- Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption
- Impacts will cross borders — global transformation
It makes a lot of sense to be prepared for this upward curve and capitalize on the same.